I had this in my paid service yesterday and also wanted to share for free as the latest free pick of 2018. Wish you all a Happy Christmas.

I am sure you will be surprised by these odds when you check standing. Antalyaspor are 7th placed while Fener are 17th placed.

But, Antalyaspor have one of the weakest squads in the league. They were a relegation candidate in start of the season. They have overperformed until now. This week, they are without four players due to suspensions. Key center-back Diego Angelo, regular defender Celustka, regular winger Dogukan Sinik and regular attacker Maicon are out due to suspensions. Midfielder Charles is out since the 1st week due to injury. Reserve striker Mevlut Erdinc is out due to injury. Reserve midfielder Vainqueur is out of squad for this game. And they also agreed with two players to terminate their contract, reserve midfielder Danilo and reserve winger Olcan Adin. Both are out for this game. If you combine all of them, it means Antalyaspor are without 9 players for this game. Some are important players, some are regulars, some are reserves. Totally 9 players out and Antalyaspor don't have a large squad. So they will have some U21 players on bench today.

In addition to all Antalyaspor problems, their best striker Doukara is just back from injury. Antalyaspor coach Bulent Korkmaz said he is not expected to play, but he is in squad. I think he may start here. If he does not start, then the trouble gets bigger for Antalyaspor because they are already without reserve striker Mevlut Erdinc.

Fenerbahce have appointed Ersun Yanal as their new coach last week. Ersun Yanal is like a hero among Fener fans. Because he is the guy who led Fenerbahce's last title in 2014. He did it with offensive minded football. And Fenerbahce's previous moron chairman wanted him to leave after winning the title. His return is more than just a coach appointment.

Fenerbahce got a 2-2 home draw against Erzurumspor last week. Some people are talking only by scorelines. Fenerbahce should have won that game by 5-0, 6-1. You can see the highlights here: tr.beinsports.com/lig/spor-toto-super-lig/ozet/2018-2019/16/fenerbahce-2-2-bsb-erzurumspor-mac-ozeti

Fenerbahce striker Slimani wasted many chances again, just like he did all season. Good news is fellow striker Soldado is back from his 6-game suspension. And he scored a cheeky goal against Giresunspor in Turkish Cup in midweek, a goal that Slimani only could dream about.

I don't know if you know xG stats, I hope you do. It is a new stats, which means 'expected goals'. Fenerbahce's xG (expected goal) is 24.83 yet they scored just 16 goals, mostly because of Slimani's huge missings. That's the most negative difference in the league for xG stats. Just to remind, 1st placed Basaksehir's xG was 20.00 and Galatasaray's xG was 25.92 before their latest game. So, Fenerbahce don't have much problems to create. The problem was converting the chances and I think Soldado's return is a big plus for this game.

There is also a "xGA" stats which means "expected goals against", that is calculated see how many goals you should have conceded. Fener's xGA number was 19.16 but they conceded 24 goals, that is also the most negative difference in the league for xGA stats. Goalkeeper Harun Tekin should have done better but it also shows Fener are not a very poor team on defence. Just to remind, Besiktas's "xGA" was 19.65 while Galatasaray's xGA was 22.51 before their latest game. Basaksehir's xGA is way better, 13.68, and still they conceded just 7 goals (before latest game).

Fener also have many absents but nothing new and they have Soldado back from suspension. Also, Fener have larger squad than Antalyaspor do. Probable Fener lineup is quite good enough to defeat this weakened Antalyaspor side.

Everything point an away win here.